2024 Olive Oil Market Forecast: Trends and Opportunities for Buyers

As we approach the 2024 olive oil production season, the market presents a complex landscape of challenges and opportunities. Recent data indicates that global production is expected to reach approximately 3.65 million tons, with Spain, Turkey, and Italy remaining the top contributors. However, with carryover stocks critically low at around 545,000 tons, the weather conditions in winter and spring will have a profound impact on both short-term and long-term market pricing.

Market Overview

While most olive-producing regions, including Spain, Italy, and Turkey, are poised for reasonable yields this year, the depleted inventories from previous seasons have created a precarious situation for global supply. Weather remains a key variable, as a warm and dry winter could lead to a significant decrease in future crop yields, pushing prices higher in the coming months.

The olive oil market is anticipated to stabilize through October as limited early production comes in. By November, as harvesting accelerates, prices may gradually decrease. The best pricing opportunities will likely arise between December and January when the bulk of the olive oil enters the market. However, the February period will be critical, as pricing will depend heavily on winter rains and the potential for a stable spring.

Turkey’s Strategic Role

Turkey’s market position is particularly strong this year. The country, alongside Syria, is expected to supply over 500,000 tons of olive oil, with low domestic consumption ensuring a high export capacity. Turkish olive oil producers are benefiting from new olive tree plantations established in 1995, making the region a highly competitive player in the global market.

Recommendations for Buyers

World of Brio advises securing olive oil contracts between November and December, when market prices are expected to be at their lowest. By planning contracts through April or May 2025, buyers can take advantage of these favorable conditions. Reassessing the market in early 2025 will provide an opportunity to adjust for any price shifts due to weather or supply constraints.

At World of Brio, we remain confident in our ability to source high-quality olive oil from trusted farms in the Mediterranean region, offering competitive prices and sustainable practices to ensure you receive premium products throughout the season.